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Argument: Russia is unlikely to denuclearize

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Supporting evidence

  • Stephen M. Younger, Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Weapons Los Alamos National Laboratory. "Nuclear Weapons in the Twenty-First Century". June 27th, 2000 - "Russia — During the past 200 years European Russia has sustained a series of catastrophes including the invasion of Napoleon, the Crimean War, the First World War, the Revolution, the Second World War, and now the transition from a communist state to something else. In each case the country recovered within a generation. Even after the Second World War, when the country was essentially in ruins, it came back to launch Sputnik within twelve years. While one cannot predict what will happen in a country so volatile as Russia, it is not unreasonable to assume that it will endeavor to return to a conventional military power while continuing to rely on a significant nuclear capability. It is clear from Russia’s investment in conventional military technology that it wishes to reassert its status in this area and to continue a lucrative business in the international arms trade."

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